Thought Theater

Iraq: A Reality Check (Update) genre: Just Jihad & Six Degrees of Speculation

UPDATE:

Despite some progress towards establishing a new government, the situation on the ground in Iraq continues to be troubling. The problem is that the establishment of a new government may have little relationship to the violence that is taking place and that seems to be on the verge of spiraling into a full scale sectarian civil war. The following excerpts are from an article by the United Press International.

As leaders bicker and bargain over who should assume what ministry in the government that Prime Minister-designate Nouri Maliki is trying to form, the streets of Baghdad and other cities across Iraq are being littered with dead bodies.

A suicide bombing here leaves dozens dead and maimed. Trigger-happy assassins there riddle holes in people for reasons only the shooters and their employers know. Dozens of corpses turn up daily in alleys, handcuffed and shot execution style, with signs of torture on their bodies.

President Jalal Talabani said Thursday that 1,091 people were killed in Baghdad alone last month, many of them unidentified corpses.

Other than the insurgency attacks targeting U.S. and other occupation troops, reports show the largest portion of the bloody violence is sectarian-oriented.

Apparently, there is no trust even among the security forces belonging to the interior and defense ministries.

Last month, the defense ministry advised Iraqis not to comply with the orders of the army or police on night patrol "unless they are accompanied by coalition forces in the area."

Iraqi analysts say the defense ministry's advisory only confirmed suspicions among Iraqis that the security forces are nothing more than militias loyal to the religious and political parties.

In a sectarian-oriented incident Friday, Iraqi army units opened fire at each other north of Baghdad, killing one soldier and a civilian passerby -- both victims were Shiites.

The reported shooting, analysts say, shows that the extensive sectarian distrust has penetrated the U.S.-trained forces.

While the Bush administration seems to be focusing on the establishment of a government, it appears that any such government may simply find itself helpless to conduct the activities one would associate with a functional system. If the newly trained Iraqi forces are splintering on the basis of sectarian allegiances, the ability to remove American soldiers may well be evaporating. Further, if the administration elects to reduce troop levels prior to the midterm elections, it may actually help facilitate the slide to civil war. In my opinion, the current problems are symptoms of having never established a valid security system within the occupied country. This resulted from miscalculating the number of troops needed once Sadaam was toppled from power. Lastly, it appears that the United States may be disengaging at the very moment that sectarian militias are mobilizing and emerging to anticipate the security void.

Independent Iraqi analysts in Amman say they cannot envision a national unity government when politicians are basing its formation on sectarian identity and a new constitution that divides power according to sectarian and ethnic quotas, whereby the president is a Kurd, the prime minister a Shiite and the parliament speaker is a Sunni Arab.

And without a genuine national unity government that takes the entire country's interests into consideration, one that is able to take control of Iraq and restore security for its entire people, the nightmare reality will only become worse.

Iraqis fear if their country still needs to hit rock bottom before it lifts itself up as a nation, the massive destruction will be greater than any mind can imagine.

As I have looked at the alternatives, I keep coming back to the suggestion of Senator Joe Biden to divide the country into autonomous sectarian governments. It looks to me that Biden is merely pointing out the many conflicting realities together with the perceived motivations of the parties involved. The logic is as follows:

1. We miscalculated the troops needed to establish order and security after Sadaam was toppled.

2. We assumed the population would be motivated more by democracy than by sectarian allegiances such that establishing a government would be relatively painless.

3. We made a mistake in dismantling the Iraqi army while also failing to adequately train a replacement one to fill the void.

4. We misunderstood the depth and degree of sectarian animosity and conflict.

5. We no longer have the will or the support of the American public to increase troop levels to gain full control of the country.

6. We can't just walk away and allow the country to slip further into civil war if we want to maintain or improve the fragile stability of the region.

7. If we simply walk away, countries like Iran will likely step in to assert further influence.

8. If we establish a government that can't secure the peace upon our departure, Iraq will spiral into civil war.

9. It appears that sectarian allegiances are stronger than the goal of a unified Iraq under one government.

10. Sectarian militias are growing and destabilizing the possibility of a national Iraqi security force.

11. Sectarian political and religious forces are such that even if a unified government can be formed, it may be too fragile to suceed.

If one accepts these realities (which shouldn't be difficult to conclude), Biden's plan may be the only viable solution. To believe otherwise may require decisions that America isn't prepared to make and that Iraq isn't capable of executing. Biden's view may be the most comprehensive and realistic assessment to date. Whether or not those in positions of authority are prepared to accept this and move forward is yet to be seen. Unfortunately, political calculations may lead those in power to do nothing more than prolong making the difficult decisions in order to avoid the clarity and responsibility that they would likely bring. It’s not a pretty picture.

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ORIGINAL POSTING:

Despite varying opinions on the progress being made in Iraq, one can't help but look at the fact that we are some three years into the effort to establish a workable governing body in the troubled country. While some feel the recent political climate has improved, many feel that sectarian differences will never allow a nationwide government to take hold. An expert on Iraq, Nir Rosen, told an audience at the New America Foundation on Thursday that the notion was hopeless. Read the full article here. Some excerpts follow.

Nir Rosen, former Baghdad bureau chief for the Asia Times and now a freelance writer, spent time with Shiite firebrand cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and individuals involved with the Sunni insurgency in central Iraq. In his book, "In the Belly of the Green Bird: the Triumph of the Martyrs in Iraq," Rosen describes what life is like in Iraq now that religious divisions and Iraqi on Iraqi violence grips the country.

Speaking at the New America Foundation Thursday, Rosen said a civil war in Iraq was now inevitable. The conflict between Shiite and Sunni Muslims "has grown much more intense," he said. "The worst is yet to come."

"All it's going to take is an assassination attempt or another mosque bombing," he said. "I no longer think that there is any hope for national reconciliation."

The conflict could grow to destabilize the entire region, Rosen said. "The civil war in Iraq is going to spread in the region and the idea of the Iraqi nation state will cease to be a relevant concept," he said.

Peter Bergen, a journalist and CNN's terrorism analyst, also speaking at the New America Foundation, said the U.S. government had miscalculated the importance of religious divisions in Iraq.

"Clerics are driving the story," Bergen said.

The most powerful among them is al-Sadr, who leads the Mahdi Army militia and who is backed by Iran, Rosen said. "In Iraq if you're young poor and Shiite you're probably a supporter of Muqtada al-Sadr," he said.

Al-Sadr has achieved a celebrity-like level of fame despite lacking the experience and credentials of other clerics, Rosen said. "He doesn't rely on his education or experience because he doesn't really have any, compared to the competition," he said.

Yet when al-Sadr spoke at a mosque, "it was like being at a Michael Jackson concert," Rosen said. "No other leader in Iraq has this kind of popularity," he said.

Rosen said he advocated a total withdrawal of American troops from Iraq.

"I don't think there's anything the U.S. government can do," he said. "I think there's no hope."