Thought Theater

Gay Marriage: The Democrat's Hot Potato genre: Gaylingual & Polispeak & Six Degrees of Speculation

With the recent debate in the Senate on a constitutional amendment to define marriage as being only between a man and a woman and Howard Dean's misstep on the Party position on the issue, gay rights groups have become more vocal in their demands for support from the Democrats in defending against and defeating state measures to prohibit gay marriage. Read the full article here.

The national party is simultaneously courting conservative evangelical Christian voters and planning how to defeat proposals on the November ballot in six states for constitutional bans on same-sex marriage. That has created tension between the Democratic Party and the gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender communities.

Gay Democrats supporting the outreach to conservatives insist the party does not have to turn its back on gays and lesbians to appeal to evangelical Christians.

"We are disappointed that more senators could not take an affirmative stand for gay and lesbian Americans," said Matt Foreman, executive director of the National Gay and Lesbian Task Force.

Gay rights leaders said a crucial test of Democratic Party support -- in addition to the marriage vote -- is how the party responds to a formal request from the National Stonewall Democrats to help fight the state amendments and encourage gays and lesbians to vote. The party has yet to budget any money for the efforts.

This raises some strategic questions and concerns that many would rather not confront. History has seen a Democratic Party that is routinely outspent by its Republican opponents. This reality of limited resources has often led the Party to make difficult spending decisions...not only on state ballot initiatives but also with regard to House and Senate races.

Under the direction of Howard Dean, the Party has made a fundamental shift in strategy that seeks to build a Party framework in all fifty states...a move that has been criticized by a number of influential Democrats. Those opposed to the Dean strategy argue that precious funds are being allocated to the grassroots effort at the expense of targeting specific House and Senate races that are competitive.

The recent demands by gay rights organizations for funds to oppose state amendments that would prohibit gay marriage simply add to the growing debate. The unfortunate reality is that most of the previous marriage initiatives have received overwhelming voter support and while there has been some favorable shift in voter sentiment towards gay marriage, there is little evidence that the current initiatives can be defeated.

The Democratic Party finds itself in much the same position with regards to the gay constituency as the Republicans do with regards to the religious right. Both groups feel their respective Party's have done little to impact the goals of their voting blocks other than to offer occasional statements of support. The Democratic Party position is further complicated by an inability to defeat any of the recent initiatives. Gay groups see Republican victories as a greater commitment by the Republican Party to these types of initiatives. However, the important distinction is that gay wedge issues have provided the Republican Party with increasing voter turnout thereby making efforts to highlight or support such measures a worthwhile investment.

Constitutional amendments to ban same-sex marriage will be on the ballot in Idaho, Virginia, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Tennessee and South Carolina. Gay rights leaders believe they have the best chance of defeating the Wisconsin amendment.

"I can't tell you where (money) will play into this whole process. We're not there yet," said Brian Bond, executive director of the Gay & Lesbian Leadership Council for the Democratic Party.

I'm inclined to believe that the essential problem for the Democratic Party apparatus is the differing and competing time perspectives. Gay rights groups, frustrated by a string of recent defeats, are increasingly dissatisfied with the lack of results and the commitment to their objectives...while many Democratic strategists believe a longer term focus on wrestling control of the House or the Senate will in the end provide the mechanism for winning on gay issues. That divide is the unresolved conflict.

Gay rights victories with regard to gay marriage in Massachusetts and the Supreme Courts rejection of sodomy laws emboldened many in the cause to believe comprehensive legalization of gay marriage was within their grasp. The actions of San Francisco and other cities to begin issuing marriage licenses to gay couples, while a welcome show of support, may have actually mobilized the opposition. The dissonance created by those rapid successes being followed by resounding defeats in 2004 simply added fuel to the current controversy.

As I've attempted to analyze the progress made by gays over the last twenty years, the prevailing impression I am left with is that much of our success happened outside of the national radar. Victories were won on a city by city basis and in state court decisions that received little national attention. The momentum of those victories was eventually enough to generate a counter movement that led to the mobilization of today’s powerful religious conservative opposition.

While gay marriage could be expected to be the natural progression of this steady movement, the fact that it became a touchstone issue has brought about the expected backlash to what is now perceived as an exponential leap. Regardless of this flawed perception, when change is viewed to be drastic...whether that be the result of the strategic rhetoric of opponents or simply the fact that the publicity has forced the voter to confront an issue that they have previously been able to keep at arms length...it often results in the fundamental reactionary shift being witnessed.

The gay rights strategy going forward, now more than ever, will determine whether the movement will continue its progression or finds itself the victim of the miscalculation born of success. There is little doubt gay marriage will be an American reality...the question is whether it will happen sooner or later. That determination rests squarely upon the next sequence of events.