Immigration Politics genre: Polispeak & Six Degrees of Speculation

The immigration debate has been the focus of extensive media attention as there are numerous political considerations here. It now appears that there will not be an immigration bill before the midterm elections as the differences between the House and Senate versions are dramatic and the political fall-out may be a risk most politicians are unwilling to take so close to November.

From MSNBC:

Now that House Republicans have decided to conduct nationwide hearings this summer on immigration reform -- thus seeming to kill any chance for immigration bill to pass Congress this year -- Democrats have begun lashing out at their GOP counterparts. Their argument? That by failing to pass comprehensive immigration reform, Republicans are jeopardizing national security.

From the Washington Times:

House leaders cast doubt yesterday on the possibility of passing immigration reform legislation this year and said, in an unusual move, that they will hold hearings across the country to gauge voter concern.

"I'm not putting any timeline ... but I think we need to get this thing done right," House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert, Illinois Republican, told reporters yesterday after meeting with the chairmen of all the committees that oversee immigration-related legislation.

While the issue of immigration divides Republicans, the position that Democrats are fairly unified behind -- granting citizenship rights to illegal aliens -- is highly unpopular among voters, polls show.

It appears that Republicans have determined that the issue is too divisive for the Party as a result of the differences between the House and Senate versions, particularly since some 17 Republicans voted in favor of the Senate bill that provides illegal's a path to citizenship...a provision the Republicans intend to call amnesty as they attempt to connect with voter sentiment that favors the harsher House version. Avoiding a messy effort to craft a bill both houses could agree upon will prevent the focusing of attention on the differences within the Republican Party.

House Republicans went to great efforts yesterday to suggest their differences are not with the Senate, but with Democrats.

Once the Senate "amnesty" bill is securely yoked to Democrats, House Republicans will take the issue on the road in the months leading up to the election.

From the San Francisco Chronicle:

Bush appears to be close to irrelevant on the issue, despite his televised address last month urging Americans to embrace the nation's immigrant heritage and provide a path to citizenship for most of the 12 million illegal immigrants now living in the country. Weeks of White House barnstorming seem to be making no headway against what Republican senators and House members heard in their districts after the Senate passed its sweeping immigration overhaul.

Some senators who backed the measure, denounced as amnesty by opponents, returned from a Memorial Day recess telling their colleagues they had made a political blunder. The special election victory June 6 in San Diego County by Republican Brian Bilbray, who opposed expanded immigration and pledged to build a fence from the Pacific to the Gulf of Mexico, helped convince lingering Republican doubters as to the soundness of the anti-illegal immigrant strategy.

Although there isn't a consensus on the impact immigration played in the CA-50 race, there is enough concern to make the issue a potentially dangerous subject that could complicate races throughout areas that are most impacted by illegal populations.

Warnings by the White House that Republicans risk alienating Latinos, the country's fastest-growing voting bloc and the linchpin to the GOP's hold on the West, have proved unpersuasive. Anti-immigration advertisements are becoming a staple of vulnerable GOP incumbents' campaigns.

My own impression of this seemingly counterintuitive approach hinges on the belief that the issue may benefit Republicans who are running in areas heavily impacted by immigrant populations due to the native population base being strongly opposed to granting a path to citizenship. Many areas with a concentration of illegals see them as a drag on local services...whether such assumptions can be supported or not. If 2006 were a national election, it might result in an overall reduction in total Hispanic voter support for the Republican Party...but 2006 involves only local and statewide races. Given the larger concern that Republicans could lose control of the House, the focus is being placed on winning local races. While the Republicans may lose some Hispanic support in statewide elections, they believe they are less likely to lose control of the Senate.

The hearings will be conducted by several House committees with a hand in immigration, but chiefly the Judiciary Committee, led by Rep. James Sensenbrenner, the Wisconsin Republican who wrote the House bill.

The timetable may doom the measure. Negotiations would have been difficult enough had talks begun last month; the delay probably postpones formal negotiations until after the August recess, the period right before the midterm elections when both parties are engaged fully in the campaign.

There are risks for Republicans if they fail to pass any immigration measures before the elections. While voter sentiment is opposed to amnesty, they remain strongly in favor of better border security as well as in favor of stronger employer enforcement measures. Democrats appear to be planning to tout the issue as one with significant security ramifications while painting the Republicans as dragging their feet because they can't reach a consensus and because they don't want to alienate the strong corporate support that continues to benefit from illegal immigrant labor.

Daniel DiRito | June 21, 2006 | 2:53 PM
AddThis Social Bookmark Button

Post a comment


Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry


© Copyright 2024

Casting

Read about the Director and Cast

Send us an email

Select a theme:

Critic's Corner

 Subscribe in a reader

Encores

http://DeeperLeft.com

Powered by:
Movable Type 4.2-en

© Copyright 2024

site by Eagle River Partners & Carlson Design