Thought Theater

Bush At 37% Approval In Latest Gallup Poll genre: Polispeak

The slight positive bounce for President Bush seems to be on the wane. In the latest USA Today Gallup Poll, Bush's approval has dropped from 40% to 37%. While the decline is not statistically significant, it does indicate that the favorable movement may have reached a peak. Read the full article here.

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new USA Today/Gallup poll finds 37% of Americans approving of the way Bush is handling his job as president and 59% disapproving. Despite many extraordinary events dominating the news over the past weeks -- including the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon and Bush's high-visibility trip to Europe -- this slight drop from the 40% approval rating measured earlier in the month is not statistically significant and falls within the margin of error between the two surveys. The current 37% rating is similar to his average approval rating of 37% for all of June.

Bush's job approval rating had been showing a slow, gradual improvement from his administration's low point of 31% in early May, but seems to have reached a plateau in the 37% to 40% range since mid-June. Bush's ratings were higher in January and early February, averaging 42%.

Bush's job approval ratings continue to be highly polarized along partisan lines. The president's job approval ratings currently stands at 82% among Republicans, 27% among independents, and lower still among Democrats, at 9%. Since the beginning of July, Bush's approval rating dropped the most among independents, from 36% in early July to 27% currently.

Thought Theater has previously argued that the opportunity for Democrats in November may rest with independent voters who generally express more moderate views on a number of issues. In my opinion, it will be critical for Democrats to avoid being portrayed as moving further left than during the prior 2004 presidential election if they are to garner the support of moderate independents.

I expect Karl Rove to make every effort to characterize Democrats as out of the mainstream on a number of issues. I expect him to focus on describing Democrats as weak on defense (primarily the war on terror) and prone to abandon the war on terror in the face of current difficulties in Iraq and the Middle East.