Thought Theater

New Poll Data: Does It Provide Insights? genre: Polispeak & Six Degrees of Speculation

With the recent flurry of polling data, I thought I might attempt to look at some of the numbers in order to gauge the direction of the voters and how the data may be connected to current and future campaign strategies.

Keep in mind that the data is simply a momentary snapshot so it can certainly change with new situations or circumstances. The two newest polls are the Fox News and AP-Ipsos. You can find the Fox News data here and the AP-Ipsos here and here.

From Fox News:

The president’s approval rating dropped to 36 percent, down from 41 percent approval two weeks ago and 40 percent in mid-June. Bush lost ground this week among some key constituent groups, such as Republicans, whites and men. Overall, 53 percent of Americans say they disapprove.

Despite the negative views on the job he’s doing, Americans believe President Bush has had a tough job assignment. A 61 percent majority — including 48 percent of Democrats, 62 percent of independents and 75 percent of Republicans — thinks Bush has had to face a larger number of difficult situations than most presidents deal with during their terms in office.

With Democrats preferred on most issues, as one might expect, they win the generic ballot test. By 42 percent to 34 percent, voters say they would support the Democratic candidate if the midterm election were held today. Their current 8-percentage point advantage is down from a 13-point edge last month (June 13-14).

The numbers are somewhat of a mixed bag in my estimation. While it is encouraging that Democrats are preferred on most issues, the decline in the lead held by Democratic over Republican candidates from 13 percent to 8 percent is not encouraging. To understand that number, the only data that offers some insight is the general voter feeling that neither party is performing well in Congress.

The other data of note is the belief by most Republicans and Independents that the President has had more difficult situations to deal with than most other presidents. I see that as the forgiveness factor meaning that I would expect many of those voters to dislike some of the President's handling of issues but it may well not prevent them from supporting the President or his Party. It also offers some understanding of how anger is involved in peoples perceptions...if voters feel the tasks have been more difficult, they may be less angry since they have provided a reasonable attribution for their disagreements with the President. The fact that 62 percent of independent voters believe that the President has had a tough job assignment is concerning since I believe independent voters will be key to either Party's November success.

From ABC News:

The AP-Ipsos poll of 1,000 adults conducted Monday through Wednesday found that President Bush has stopped his political freefall, with his approval rating of 36 percent basically unchanged from last month. Bush received slightly higher marks for his handling of the Iraq war and the fight against terrorism, weeks after his surprise trip to Baghdad and the killing of Iraqi terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in a U.S. air strike last month.

Not surprisingly, 81 percent of self-described liberals said they would vote for the Democrat. Among moderates, though, 56 percent backed a Democrat in their district and almost a quarter of conservatives 24 percent said they will vote Democratic.

Democrats also held the advantage among persuadable voters those who are undecided or wouldn't say whom they prefer. A total of 51 percent said they were leaning Democrat, while 41 percent were leaning Republican.

One bright spot for the GOP is that Republicans hold an advantage over Democrats on issues such as foreign policy and fighting terrorism 43 percent to 33 percent and a smaller edge on handling Iraq 36 percent to 32 percent.

The most encouraging number for Democrats, in my opinion, is the undecided voters leaning towards voting Democratic by a 10 percent margin. I see that number as a measure of perceptions and it indicates that Democrats are ahead in the perception battle...an area I have previously expressed concerns for Democrats as I expect Karl Rove to mount an aggressive campaign to win the perception battle. He has an excellent track record in that regard. Rove has typically launched his perception efforts late in the game and with a focus on casting doubts about the opposition with an array of derogatory spin portrayed as factual data.

From the Los Angeles Times:

8. If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were held today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in your congressional district?

• The Democratic candidate, 47 percent

• The Republican candidate, 36 percent

• Other candidate (Volunteered), 3 percent

• Undecided (Volunteered), 11 percent

• None (Volunteered), 1 percent

• Will not vote (Volunteered), 1 percent

• Not sure, 1 percent

(QUESTION 8A ASKED OF THOSE WHO SAID UNDECIDED, NONE OR NOT SURE)

8a. Do you lean more towards the Democratic or Republican candidate in your district?

• The Democratic candidate, 26 percent

• The Republican candidate, 30 percent

• Other candidate (Volunteered), 1 percent

• Undecided (Volunteered), 32 percent

• None (Volunteered), 5 percent

• Not sure, 6 percent

(QUESTION 8B ASKED OF THOSE WHO SAID THEY WOULD VOTE FOR THE DEMOCRATIC OR REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE)

8b. In November, will you definitely vote for that candidate, probably vote for that candidate, or do you think you could change your mind before the election in November?

• Definitely will vote for Democratic candidate, 23 percent

• Probably will vote for Democratic candidate, 15 percent

• Could change mind (Democrat), 17 percent

• Definitely will vote for Republican candidate, 17 percent

• Probably will vote for Republican candidate, 12 percent

• Could change mind (Republican), 13 percent

• Not sure, 3 percent

(QUESTION 9 ASKED OF ALL EXCEPT THOSE WHO SAID IN QUESTION 8 THEY WOULD NOT VOTE)

9. Will your vote for Congress be at least in part

• To show opposition to President Bush, 20 percent

• To show support for President Bush, 15 percent

• Or will President Bush not be a factor in your vote for Congress, 63 percent

• Not sure, 2 percent

In this polling data, the Democrats hold an 11 percent lead over Republicans in how voters would vote if the election were held today which is better than the Fox News poll. However, those who were undecided with regard to that question leaned towards voting Republican by a margin of 4 percent. While not a significant lead, this particular poll might indicate that Republicans have gained ground in the perception game since more undecided voters are leaning Republican.

The other interesting question asked voters how they felt about the handling of Iraq by the members of both party’s congressional delegations. In that tally there was little difference in voter sentiment. 32 percent approved of the job Democrats were doing and 36 percent approved of the job Republicans were doing. Voters who disapprove of the job Democrats were doing stood at 64 percent and voters who disapproved of the job Republicans were doing stood at 61 percent.

These numbers are the most concerning to me since they measure the performance of actual people who voters will be electing. It seems to indicate that voters make a distinction between the job the President is doing with regard to Iraq and the job Congress is doing. The logic seems to say that voters feel neither party's congressional delegation is doing their job with regard to Iraq...which may not allow Democrats to capitalize on voter disapproval of Bush's handling of the Iraq situation.