Cease Fire Brings Media Focus Back To Iraq genre: Just Jihad & Polispeak & Six Degrees of Speculation

Iraqi violence

With the cessation of major conflict in Lebanon, the war in Iraq is once again a focal point of media attention and it appears that the news is bleak. Following on the recent debate about whether President Bush was or wasn't frustrated with the Iraqi government...particularly Prime Minister Maliki...the White House confirms that there are "huge challenges" ahead. The President's meeting with top commanders is detailed by Reuters here and The New York Times discusses the growing attacks on U.S. military personnel here.

From Reuters:

Bush held talks with Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and senior advisers. Participating by video link were top generals George Casey and John Abizaid.

White House spokesman Tony Snow said he suspected there could be some discussion about U.S. troop levels in Iraq but he had no details.

Bush is under election-year pressure to start bringing some troops home this year, but a spasm of violence in Baghdad has forced commanders to move some American forces from other parts of Iraq into the capital.

"The administration continues, though, to take a very close and candid look at what's going on. The security situation in some places is uneven. And it's clear that there are huge challenges that await us," Snow said.

I find the use of the term "uneven" to define the security situation that many have called sectarian violence or civil war to be laughable. While it may be Snow's role to spin the news as favorably as possible for the administration, it seems apparent that the American public isn't buying these characterizations that attempt to portray a more favorable picture of the Iraqi situation. The reality is that they are unable to report meaningful progress and it continues to look as if Senator McCain had it right when he stated that it appeared we were moving troops from hot spot to hot spot as if playing a game of "whack-a-mole". Until there is sustained progress across the entire country, it is doubtful that Americans will buy into the notion that progress is being made.

From The New York Times:

WASHINGTON, Aug. 16 — The number of roadside bombs planted in Iraq rose in July to the highest monthly total of the war, offering more evidence that the anti-American insurgency has continued to strengthen despite the killing of the terrorist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

Along with a sharp increase in sectarian attacks, the number of daily strikes against American and Iraqi security forces has doubled since January. The deadliest means of attack, roadside bombs, made up much of that increase. In July, of 2,625 explosive devices, 1,666 exploded and 959 were discovered before they went off. In January, 1,454 bombs exploded or were found.

A number of elected officials have argued that U.S. troops are simply sitting targets attempting to referee a civil war that is being played out by sectarian group’s intent on asserting influence and obtaining power. That belief has long been the rationale behind the Murtha argument that the troops should be redeployed out of harms way...yet available to intervene if absolutely necessary. The Bush administration continues to struggle with the situation and has likely already placed its midterm election bet on continuing the effort to navigate the successful installation of a consensus government that will overcome the sectarian conflict. That decision may well force voters to make the November election a referendum on Bush's handling of the Iraqi conflict.

From The New York Times:

A separate, classified report by the Defense Intelligence Agency, dated Aug. 3, details worsening security conditions inside the country and describes how Iraq risks sliding toward civil war, according to several officials who have read the document or who have received a briefing on its contents.

The report’s contents are being widely discussed among Pentagon officials, military commanders and, in particular, on Capitol Hill, where concern among senior lawmakers of both parties is growing over a troubling dichotomy: even as Iraq takes important steps toward democracy — including the election of a permanent government this spring — the violence has gotten worse.

The newest accounts of the risks of civil war may already be altering the political dynamic in Washington. After General Abizaid’s testimony, the chairman of the Armed Services Committee, Senator John W. Warner of Virginia, said that if Iraq fell into civil war, the committee might need to examine whether the authorization provided by Congress for the use of American force in Iraq would still be valid. The comments by Senator Warner, a senior Republican who is a staunch supporter of the president, have reverberated loudly across Congress.

“Senior administration officials have acknowledged to me that they are considering alternatives other than democracy," said one military affairs expert who received an Iraq briefing at the White House last month and agreed to speak only on condition of anonymity.

“Everybody in the administration is being quite circumspect," the expert said, “but you can sense their own concern that this is drifting away from democracy."

As I review this latest information, it is clear that the prevailing mindset of experts on Iraq is moving in a direction that is fundamentally opposed to the Bush administration strategy that has emerged since the failure to find WMD's...a strategy that has argued that the best deterrent to terror is the freedom and promise of democracy. Every indication seems to say that current efforts to bring stability to the region through preemptive actions may actually be accelerating the radicalization of ordinary citizens who might otherwise avoid sectarian polarization.

The situation may be destined to further deterioration as the GOP hangs its midterm efforts on the aggressive prosecution of the war on terror in an effort to negate voter inclinations to support Democrats. The President may continue to say that he ignores polls but he may well be making decisions intent on changing the dynamics that are currently driving their outcome. That doesn't portend any likely resolution to the current quagmire.

Daniel DiRito | August 17, 2006 | 12:17 PM
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