Poll Numbers: AP-Ipsos & Fox News genre: Just Jihad & Polispeak & Six Degrees of Speculation

By the numbers

The latest polling data doesn't offer the President or his Party much to be excited about as we head towards the November midterm election. While the GOP has sought to make the most of the Ned Lamont victory and yesterday's foiled terror plot, it appears they will need to change quite a few minds in the next three months if they hope to avoid significant Democratic gains. The Associated Press has the latest polling data here.

From the AP:

An Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted this week found the president's approval rating has dropped to 33 percent, matching his low in May. His handling of nearly every issue, from the Iraq war to foreign policy, contributed to the president's decline around the nation, even in the Republican-friendly South.

More sobering for the GOP are the number of voters who backed Bush in 2004 who are ready to vote Democratic in the fall's congressional elections - 19 percent. These one-time Bush voters are more likely to be female, self-described moderates, low- to middle-income and from the Northeast and Midwest.

In the South, Bush's approval ratings dropped from 43 percent last month to 34 percent as the GOP advantage with Southern women disappeared.

On the generic question of whether voters would back the Democrat or Republican, 55 percent of registered voters chose the Democrat and 37 percent chose the Republican, a slight increase for Democrats from last month.

The most encouraging news from this poll is the fact that we are seeing a shift in moderate voters who previously voted GOP...a trend that is very encouraging for Democrats as it indicates that the Republican hold on moderate independents may finally be waning and that the solidly red South may be on the verge of a shift back to the Democratic Party. A Fox News poll seems to indicate similar findings.

From Fox News:

The new poll finds the 36 percent of Americans approve of President Bush’s job performance and 56 percent disapprove.

Democrats (63 percent) and independents (51 percent) are much more likely than Republicans (22 percent) to say they would vote for the challenger.

If the election were held today, 48 percent of Americans say they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their congressional district and 30 percent for the Republican candidate. This 18-percentage point edge is up from an 8-point advantage in mid-July and a 13-point lead in June.

The Fox News Poll goes on to point out that there appears to be a strong anti-incumbent mood within the country. While that appears to offer Republicans some hope in races where Democrats are the Party in power, it may not be enough to overcome the many other factors that seemingly work against the GOP. The prevailing trend seems to indicate that the Bush administration and the Republican Party are the main focus of voter sentiment to remove those in power.

From Fox News:

The Democrats’ lead is obtained by not only retaining the support of most self-identified Democrats (89 percent), but also support from a large minority of independents (38 percent). Only 14 percent of independents say they would vote for the Republican candidate today. The level of support among party faithful is lower among Republicans, as 79 percent say they would vote for the GOP candidate.

There are a couple items within the polling that are reasons for concern for Democrats. The approval rating for Congress continues to be worse than that of President Bush and when that is coupled with the "throw the bums out" mentality, it may hinder the Democratic effort to make the election simply a referendum of Bush and the GOP. Additionally, Americans still seem to hold to hope that the President's policies can succeed...which may be the best hope for Republican's to convince voters to keep Republicans in power. Nonetheless, that appears to be a long shot.

From Fox News:

The assessment of the job Congress is doing continues to be abysmal, as more than twice as many Americans say they disapprove (58 percent) as approve (24 percent).

Finally, 63 percent of Americans say they want President Bush to succeed, including majorities of not only Republicans (90 percent), but also independents (63 percent). Just over half (51 percent) of Democrats say they do not want the president to succeed.

The question will be whether the GOP can attach the desire for the President to succeed to the war on terror and American security...something the Republicans began to aggressively push this week after the Ned Lamont win in Connecticut. The strategy would be to favorably equate American security and safety with the President and the GOP and to negatively paint the Democrats as anti-war and soft on defense and security as evidenced by the decision to reject Joe Lieberman who they will portray as a moderate who is strong on national defense.

The best analysis of the GOP strategy that I have heard to date came in a discussion between Chris Matthews and Howard Fineman on Thursday’s Hardball. The full transcript can be found here. The Fineman exchange follows:

From MSNBC:

MATTHEWS: Welcome back to HARDBALL. Howard Fineman is chief political correspondent for “Newsweek," he‘s also MSNBC‘s chief political analyst, I should say. He‘s certainly here tonight.

Let me ask you, Tony Snow yesterday at the press conference, took a direct shot at those who oppose this administration‘s policy on terrorism. Was that timed, coordinated, whatever, with this disclosure today?

HOWARD FINEMAN, NEWSWEEK: Well, I think it had to be. And it was in the immediate aftermath of Ned Lamont, the anti-war Democrat, winning that primary up in Connecticut against Joe Lieberman. Tony Snow had to know that the terrain was about to change. Because the administration has been keyed into this British thing for weeks, they‘ve been following it minute by minute. Snow is in there, he knows what‘s going on. So he‘s out there saying, watch out, Democrats. Don‘t get on the wrong side of this, knowing that something was coming. It gets fascinating, when Karl Rove called Joe Lieberman Tuesday night to say, hey, friend, you know, good luck, did he say something to him? Did he say, hey, the environment is about to change, hang in there? I don‘t know. But it is changing.

And what‘s happening is that the volume is being pushed up. The intensity, the colors between red and blue is pushed up. You had President Bush today coming out on the tarmac there on his campaign swing, saying we are fighting the Islamic fascists, and he‘s daring the...

MATTHEWS: Why those words now? Not insurgents, not terrorists, but Islamic fascists? What‘s that about?

FINEMAN: OK. Two things. One is, he‘s talking about clash of civilizations. He is drawing the bright line and daring the Democrats not to do the same thing. They‘re going to say the Democrats are afraid to name the enemy for what it is, number one, and he‘s using fascists to try to connect it up to World War II, try to put himself in the FDR/Truman role. And you know, it‘s going to be this way all the way.

The Democrats, meanwhile, are coming out with all kinds of statements trying to say, as Ted Kennedy and John Kerry and even Ned Lamont here in this statement today said, look, we know the situation is bad, but it‘s your policies that have made it worse. We‘re less safe now. Al Qaeda is angrier with more adherents now because of your policies, and that‘s what this is all going to be about.

MATTHEWS: Will the hook of the administration be that we need to tap phones, and it‘s the liberals and the ACLU people that won‘t let us do it? Because the Brits caught these guys, foiled this plot at the last minute tapping?

FINEMAN: Yes. They‘re already saying that. They‘re already lining up everybody who had anything critical to say about any PATRIOT Act provision—the first PATRIOT Act, the second PATRIOT Act. That is going to be on the list of every attack ad that you are going to see—PATRIOT Act opposition, refusal to call the enemy the enemy. They‘re going to say that the liberal Democrats are out to take back the House so they can try to impeach the commander in chief. It‘s going to get that nasty that fast.

MATTHEWS: The president today was pretty tough. He said it‘s a battle right now in this country, our country, between those who think that terrorism is a threat and those who don‘t think it‘s a threat.

FINEMAN: Well, that‘s not true. Ned Lamont knows it‘s a threat, John Kerry knows it‘s a threat. They have a different answer, and if the Democrats are going to get anywhere this fall, they‘re going to have to articulate that answer, of strength but shrewdness, better than they have so far.

MATTHEWS: Smart and tough.

FINEMAN: They‘ve got to do it, or they‘re not going to win.

Fineman has echoed the concerns previously expressed here at Thought Theater with regards to the GOP strategy. There has been extensive criticism of the politicization of the foiled terror plot on the internet...at AMERICAblog.com, by Digby at Hullabaloo, and by Atrios at Eschaton. Nonetheless, Democrats need to be prepared for this type of campaign...one that is fully reminiscent of the 2004 presidential election and a tactic that Rove and the GOP has mastered.

Daniel DiRito | August 11, 2006 | 9:25 AM
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