Thought Theater

Security Moms Kicking GOP Habit? genre: Just Jihad & Polispeak & Six Degrees of Speculation

It’s beginning to look like security moms have had their fill of President Bush and the GOP. Married women with children went from soccer moms to security moms in the last two election cycles...all the while remaining a key factor in Republican control of government. Call them what you will but it now looks like they are once again on the move...from the GOP to the Democrats. While they remain concerned about terrorism and security, it is beginning to look like they no longer accept the rhetoric offered by the administration and its supporters. Read the full Washington Post article here.

The study, which examined the views of married women with children from April through this week, found that they support Democrats for Congress by a 12-point margin, 50 percent to 38 percent. That is nearly a mirror-image reversal from a similar period in 2002, when this group backed Republicans 53 percent to 36 percent. In 2004, exit polls showed, Bush won a second term in part because 56 percent of married women with children supported him.

Andrew Kohut, who directs the Pew poll, said the "negative impact of Iraq is hurting not only Bush but also the Republican Party as well." No longer, Kohut said, is "terrorism alone enough to keep" married women and other voters in the GOP fold.

In its latest poll of the general public, conducted after the news from London broke, Pew found a majority voicing concerns that Democrats were too weak on terrorism, the precise charge Republicans have made over the past 10 days. Yet an even larger majority said they fear Republicans would involve the United States in too many military operations.

What appears to be happening is that the public has made a distinction between security and the associated war on terrorism from the rhetoric of the neocon ideology...a move that may spell the demise of GOP dominance. Voters were initially willing to give the Bush administration ample latitude with regard to fighting terrorism but it appears they realize that the Bush doctrine of exporting democracy through aggressive and preemptive action may not be in the best interest of U.S. security. Clearly voters can discern that our efforts in Iraq may actually be increasing the radicalization of the region which may ultimately make it more difficult to keep Americans safe.

Married mothers said in interviews here that they remain concerned about national security and the ability of Democrats to keep them safe from terrorist strikes. But surveys indicate Republicans are not benefiting from this phenomenon as they have before.

David Winston, a Republican pollster who advises GOP leaders on election strategy, said married women in particular are often spooked more by the uncertainty of Iraq than the threat of terror. "They are increasingly unwilling to sustain the sort of sacrifices that we have to make over there," even though many support the mission, Winston said.

I am inclined to disagree with Winston's assessment. Until recently, many Americans supported the effort in Iraq because they saw the mission as part and parcel of the war on terror. I believe that the shift is being facilitated by a newfound understanding that the effort is simply not working. Polls show that a majority of Americans still connect Iraq with 9/11...given that fact the only plausible explanation of the opposition to the Iraq effort is an evaluation of the results.

In the end, Americans simply don't see our sacrifices in Iraq adding up to more security and a diminished threat from terrorists. Essentially, they are concluding that the GOP isn't winning the war on terror and they are deciding it may be time to let the other Party lead the way. That better explains the data suggesting that the issue of security is still important but that it is no longer translating into a Republican advantage.

I expect the GOP to intensify its efforts to focus on security and the need for a successful conclusion in Iraq. It will be critical for the Bush administration to provide some rationale for that success that exceeds the oft heard assertions that progress is being made and that we are a few months away from conclusive proof. If they are unable to do so, look for voters to determine that employing the Democrats is no more risky than staying the course. I'm convinced that will be the calculation made in the ballot box in November. Americans are patient...but they are also focused on results...and the GOP may have miscalculated both.