New CBS News Poll: Voters Give Mixed Signals genre: Just Jihad & Polispeak & Six Degrees of Speculation

Interpreting polls

Recent polling on voter sentiment seems to be providing more conflicting data than clarification. How one interprets the data may well depend upon ones own particular bias. Nonetheless, we are drawn to these polls in the hopes that they will give us some predictive comfort as to outcome of the pending election. The latest CBS News poll continues the trend of mixed signals.

Fifty-four percent of Americans say they generally feel safe, but 46 percent say they feel somewhat uneasy or in danger.

Compared with five years ago, 39 percent of Americans say they feel less safe now, compared with only 14 percent who say they feel safer. Forty-six percent say they feel the same.

More also say the threat of terrorism has grown since 9/11 than said so a year ago. Forty-one percent say the threat has increased since the attacks, an 11 percent jump from last year. Just 14 percent say the threat has decreased, while 43 percent say the threat has not changed.

Clearly, terrorism continues to trouble a significant number of Americans. While the numbers offer some insight, it is ultimately unclear as to who they feel is responsible for the concerns they hold and which Party they will entrust with their safety and security. With only two months until the election, it does seem clear that the conclusions they make in that regard may well determine which Party controls the House and the Senate.

Also, by a four-to-one margin (48 percent to 12 percent), Americans think the war in Iraq has made the threat of terrorism against the United States worse rather than better.

Both the war in Iraq and the war in Afghanistan are viewed as having created breeding grounds for terrorists. Fifty-four percent say the wars have created more terrorists, while just 15 percent say they've eliminated terrorists.

There's also increased pessimism about the overall war on terrorism, with 21 percent — the highest number ever — saying the terrorists are winning. Thirty-six percent say the United States is winning and 38 percent say neither side is winning.

These numbers would suggest that the Democratic strategy to portray the handling of the war in Iraq as a series of miscalculations (amplified by the overwhelming intransigence on the part of the administration) is succeeding. Without a doubt, the Iraq war has done little to bolster the President's popularity or to position his Party favorably. However, the following information seems to suggest that a majority of voters may not necessarily conclude that it precludes Bush from being able to succeed in prosecuting the war on terror.

Still, a majority of Americans, 55 percent, say they approve of how President Bush is handling the war on terror — his highest rating in more than a year, but a sharp decrease from December 2001, when 90 percent approved.

About half of those polled say Bush administration policies have made America safer, but one in four say they've made the United States less safe. A similar number say they've had no effect.

One explanation for that skepticism may be that nearly half of Americans don’t think terrorism is a problem a president can do much about.

Americans are split on how prepared the United States is to deal with another terrorist attack: 49 percent think the country is prepared, 43 percent think it is not.

As I ponder this portion of the data, the first question that crosses my mind is the fact that if voters don't think a president can do much with regard to terrorism, is it possible that the election many feel will be a referendum on the President may possibly not materialize? This new polling information, coupled with prior polls indicating that a convincing majority of voters oppose the war but still seem hesitant to support an immediate withdrawal and that they also hold onto hope that we can eventually achieve our objectives in Iraq, would seem to suggest that voters have a better grasp of the realities and potentialities than either Party presumes. If that proves to be the case, then the old adage that all elections are local may hold the greatest weight.

Either way, it may well mean that neither Party's strategy may have as much influence as we currently perceive. As with many elections, those swing voters still contemplating their conclusions are once again poised to tilt the election as we approach the finish line. In the meantime, we wait for the next poll.

Daniel DiRito | September 6, 2006 | 8:15 PM
AddThis Social Bookmark Button

Post a comment


Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry


© Copyright 2024

Casting

Read about the Director and Cast

Send us an email

Select a theme:

Critic's Corner

 Subscribe in a reader

Encores

http://DeeperLeft.com

Powered by:
Movable Type 4.2-en

© Copyright 2024

site by Eagle River Partners & Carlson Design