Political Strategy: Watch Out For Fred Thompson? genre: Polispeak & Six Degrees of Speculation

Fred Thompson

Fred Thompson is someone to watch...someone who may have a strategy which is far more evolved than many may think. Personally, I'm not inclined to support Thompson but as I've kept an eye on the 2008 presidential candidates, I keep coming back to Thompson as a candidate who is blazing a new trail and carving out a niche that just might serve him well.

Prior to Thompson's official announcement on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno, I too questioned his decision to delay his entry into the race. Since he's actually become a candidate, I've begun to wonder if Thompson is onto something. One recent Thompson statement crystallized my thoughts on the candidates strategy.

While offering that "debates are important," Thompson warned about letting "the tail wag the dog here."

"Standing up here, ten in a row, you know, like a bunch of seals waiting for somebody to toss the next fish is not necessarily the best way to impart information to the American people," he cracked to loud applause. "I'm not above acting like a seal every once in a while and waiting for the next fish. I just don't want to do it all the time."

Conventional wisdom has suggested Thompson's absence from the many debates may harm his candidacy...but after reading his remarks, I think Thompson will be able to succeed...or at a minimum, hold his own...with a measured participation. I say as much because I suspect that voters will soon be tired of the many debates as well as being bombarded by newfangled formats which may appeal to the tech savvy...but not so much to the bulk of "ordinary" voters simply looking for a means to garner an understanding of the candidates positions and therefore draw necessary comparisons and conclusions.

The manner in which Thompson has chosen to characterize the debate process and their frequency may well allow him to define a unique and independent style as well as a distinctive leadership quality...one that questions the status quo. I would call it a move to define himself as "presidential". Rather than following the crowd towards endless "performances", Thompson can downplay their merit while still benefiting from his well established name recognition.

His ability to distill folksy and frank messages adds to his appeal as an outsider...one who understands the voters and their disgust with polished political rhetoric designed to maximize the constituent base while maintaining an element of policy flexibility. The bottom line is to impart that he isn't selling slick...to convince voters that he's not selling anything; he's simply a straight shooter.

Look at his response to a question about his late entry into the race.

Local television reporters swarmed the senator before he had time to sample the stew. With his chili going cold in a Styrofoam bowl behind him, Thompson insisted that his late entry into the race would not prevent voters from warming to him. "I can't let other people set my agenda for me," he said.

The first thought which entered my mind as I began to view his strategic acumen was the comparison and contrast to George W. Bush. Clearly, none of the candidates want to be seen as George Bush the policy maker...but being seen as George Bush the down home person one might like to have a beer with is another story. Of all the candidates, Thompson may best capture that trait...one which has led voters to forgive many of the gaffes they've witnessed from the current president...simply because he seems to be a likable chap.

At the same time, two recent remarks by Thompson help establish the necessary contrast. His comments on not being a regular church goer and his suggestion that he was uncomfortable talking about his faith at length...other than to state he was "right with God and the people I love" is a clear deviation from the Bush approach to religion as a driving force. Add in his virtually disengaged reaction to a question about the Terri Schiavo situation and an astute pattern emerges. Let me explain.

The press jumped upon both comments. With regard to his sporadic church attendance, a number of pundits saw it as the equivalent of political suicide. Perhaps that makes sense on the surface but it requires more reflection. As the 2008 election approaches, one must first look backward and forward...backward to eight years of the Bush administration's perceived religious excess...forward to the efforts by Democratic candidates to accentuate and highlight their proximity to religious faith.

I suspect many voters will view Thompson's position as authentic...a position absent the religious pandering which characterized the Bush years...and one which refuses to engage in the seeming rush by Democrats to demonstrate their religious credentials so as not to alienate the faithful. As I perceive Thompson's remark, I suspect it mirrors the views of a majority of Americans...one that strikes a practical balance in the current political atmosphere.

As to the Schiavo comments, many in the media portrayed them as a liability which may be indicative of a candidate lacking the necessary sharpness...an acuity which some argue could have been refined by an earlier entrance into the fray. His vagueness has also been cast as potentially supportive of the suspicions that Thompson is lazy. I disagree with both assumptions. Take a look at Thompson's actual statement on the Schiavo situation.

"I can't pass judgment on it. I know that good people were doing what they thought was best," Thompson said. "That's going back in history. I don't remember the details of it." [...] "Local matters generally speaking should be left to the locals. I think Congress has got an awful lot to keep up with."

As I read the words, they were in keeping with the opinion of most Americans from a number of angles. No, they won't necessarily satisfy the far right...but Thompson has support from that quarter already as a function of the perceived insufficiencies of his opponents...meaning he need not pander to them on social issues. Rather, his words establish his conservative credentials for those independents who may have voted Democratic in 2006 as well as those Republicans who have viewed George Bush as an acceptable social conservative but also a president wholly lacking in the traditional GOP conservatism which has become equated with Ronald Reagan.

Further, his answer is actually in line with what most Democrats felt about the situation. Specifically, they believed it shouldn't have become a national political issue whereby Congress and the President would intervene in a matter which had been fully vetted at the appropriate levels. In other words, Thompson's lack of knowledge...or lack of interest...along with his musing that Congress has plenty to do already...sends some important and welcome messages to Reagan Democrats; he doesn't intend to be George Bush, he is a traditional conservative, he supports limited government intervention, and religion will not drive his presidency.

Even his comments on gay marriage honor this apparent strategic equation.

Patrick Sammon, president of the Log Cabin Republicans, said Thompson’s proposal stops short of resurrecting the failed Federal Marriage Amendment, which sought to define marriage as being solely between a man and a woman.

“It is a pretty huge difference from the Federal Marriage Amendment that President Bush supported," he said. “This proposal would not prohibit state legislatures from passing gay marriage."

But many gay activists said Thompson’s proposal would nonetheless enshrine discrimination in the U.S. Constitution.

Thompson’s camp eventually issued a statement clarifying his stance.

“If necessary, he would support a constitutional amendment prohibiting states from imposing their laws on marriage on other states," it said. “Fred Thompson does not support a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage."

Clearly, Thompson's position won't fully satisfy evangelicals...but it must be looked at in comparison to his fellow GOP candidates. In that regard, he has little to lose in establishing a federalist position on the issue...and is likely to draw some much needed support from moderate Republicans and independent voters.

One last statement shines a bright light on the Thompson strategy. During a recent campaign stop in Florida, Thompson addressed No Child Left Behind...calling it a good idea but once again seeking to strike the right balance between federally mandated programs and good old local decision making. Here's how he summarizes his view.

"It's your responsibility," he said. "If you don't like what's going on, don't get in your car and drive by your school board and maybe drive by the capitol and get on an airplane and fly to Washington and say, 'I don't like the way the school down the street is being run.'"

Where does such a strategy potentially position Fred Thompson? He holds his own with the social conservative evangelical voters who lack better choices, he recaptures the essence of traditional conservatism, he broadens his appeal with independents, and he opens the door to capturing Reagan Democrats. If he can make that happen, that's a pretty impressive achievement.

Tagged as: 2008 Election, Evangelicals, Federalism, Fred Thompson, No Child Left Behind, Religion, Same-Sex Marriage, Terri Schiavo

Daniel DiRito | September 14, 2007 | 10:59 AM
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