Super Tuesday - Tabulating The Dems Delegate Count genre: Polispeak
NOTE: This posting will appear as the lead item throughout the day and any new entries will be added below it until Wednesday morning.
At long last, Super Tuesday has arrived...and with it an opportunity for millions of Americans to make known their choice for the next president of the United States. A total of 24 states will weigh-in today.
Thought Theater will track the delegate count hourly for the two remaining Democratic candidates via the following graphic. Please note the following caveats when viewing the delegate counts throughout the evening.
1. The tally only includes the delegates assigned by virtue of the primary election or caucus process and doesn't include the super delegates who have expressed their preferences. I have excluded them since they can still change their vote in the future.
2. As the night progresses, I will apportion delegates, on the hour, based upon the then current percentage of popular votes each candidate is receiving at that moment...or the best available information as to their distribution. In doing so, the numbers will provide an approximation; not an exact count (delegate counts aren't a function of an exact percentage formula).
3. As the delegate counts are finalized, I will note those numbers in a final tally. No doubt that total will not be official until Wednesday for some states. When delegate counts reflect final tallies, the numbers will be followed by an asterisk.
4. I will provide updates on the GOP race as information is available...though I won't track those numbers with a graphic.
Feel free to offer your predictions, comments, and observations as the day progresses.
UPDATE I (1:26 PM MST):
Mike Huckabee has won the West Virginia convention and will receive 18 delegates. Romney led after the first ballot but failed to obtain a majority. There is speculation that the McCain campaign asked its supporters to support Huckabee on the subsequent vote in order to deny Romney the victory.
UPDATE II (10:40 PM MST):
States called for Obama: Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Delaware, Georgia, Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, Idaho, Utah, Connecticut, & North Dakota
States called for Clinton: Arizona, Arkansas, California, Oklahoma, Tennessee, New Jersey, Massachusetts, & New York
States called for McCain: Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, & New York
States called for Romney: Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, & Utah
States called for Huckabee: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, & West Virginia
UPDATE III (11:45 PM MST):
Well the only state outstanding for the Democrats is New Mexico. The pundits seem to think the state will lean towards Obama so I have apportioned the delegates 14 to 12 in favor of Obama...though I remain somewhat skeptical.
The numbers for California are still quite early so the delegate count can certainly change as different demographics from around the state are tallied. Regardless, I've made some assumptions in order to project the final delegate split in the state.
As you can see from the graphic, I have Obama and Clinton separated by merely one single delegate (excluding any super delegates) at the end of the day.
I'll update the totals tomorrow with the final information.
Keep an eye on John Edwards in the coming days as he collected some delegates under the radar tonight. His endorsement will become all the more sought after.
Also, don't forget about Michigan and Florida. If this race continues to stay close, the decision by the Democrats to exclude them will become more significant and it will also be subjected to more second guessing and criticism.