Thought Theater

Clift: Too Late For Bush To Be A Centrist genre: Polispeak & Six Degrees of Speculation

The current debate on immigration reform has brought focus to the conflicting and confusing politics of George Bush. In the current issue of Newsweek, Eleanor Clift explores Bush's position on immigration reform and his lost opportunity to be a centrist leader. Read the full article here.

May 19, 2006 - President Bush’s call for a “rational middle ground" on immigration injects a welcome note of sanity into the debate. But that’s not what Bush’s conservative base is looking for.

After five and a half years of governing from the irrational exuberant right, Bush’s ability to lead the country on a middle path has been lost. He may have stumbled onto the right message, but he’s the wrong messenger. It’s like his call to break our addiction to oil, which was a line in his State of the Union Message. From a former oilman who as president championed tax breaks for more drilling, it was a brazen left-hand turn, and it went mostly unheeded.

What is most confounding about Bush is the inconsistency with which he has approached numerous issues. Some contend he's simply a man of principle who is following his beliefs despite voter opinion. In a previous posting, I argued that his conflicting positions originated from a constantly shifting Karl Rove strategy that is ever focused on crafting and keeping a 51% majority constituency. Reaching any final conclusion as to the administration's actual motivations is increasingly difficult as each day seems to bring a new turn or an added twist. Clift contends that these fluctuations have alienated the Republican base. She points to Pat Buchanan to prove her point.

To Buchanan’s way of thinking, the richness of America’s diversity and the growing political clout of Hispanics is a cause for alarm, not for celebration. And it’s not just illegal immigration that worries him; he would like to shut the door to the world and curb legal immigration, as well. If Buchanan were 10 years younger, he’d be running for president. He’s doing the next best thing, rallying the Buchanan Brigades of campaigns past to ramp up the rhetoric and inflame the conservative base to burn the House down, if need be.

Bush is flailing around trying to find the wedge issue that will win back his base, which makes him vulnerable to Buchanan’s nativist ranting. The irony is that Bush’s approach on immigration is a glimpse into what could have been, centrist politics with broad appeal, but it’s too late for that. He spent his entire presidency courting his conservative base, and they won’t put up with this betrayal. “This is the most deeply divisive issue in the party since his father raised taxes," says Marshall Wittmann, who advised John McCain before joining the centrist Democratic Leadership Council.

I previously wrote that Karl Rove's approach to maintaining a majority constituency involves "calculating the tolerance thresholds of each constituency to determine the amount of disappointment each group can withstand and still remain a part of the patchwork coalition." There is growing evidence that he may have miscalculated these thresholds. It appears more likely that he may have underestimated the tipping point phenomenon...the point at which all tolerance for disappointment evaporates and the previously malleable voting blocks suddenly become intransigent. If one looks at recent remarks by longstanding Bush supporters, there is ample evidence that the tipping point has arrived. Clift goes on to explain how fiscal issues have amplified the discontent.

Bush has built up more foreign-held debt in five years than all previous presidents together accumulated over 224 years. The rebellion over immigration has become the touchstone for conservative anger at Bush over a range of disappointments. “This is where they’re venting," says Wittmann.

The likely outcome in Congress is that any bill the Senate passes that tilts toward moderation will almost certainly die when it cannot be reconciled with a House bill that says illegal immigrants are felons. The Republicans will then go into the November elections having failed to act on an issue consuming the country at a time when they control the White House and the Congress, a dereliction of duty in the minds of many if not most voters. Neo-Buchananism is on the ascendancy in the Republican Party, and the nativist sentiments unleashed in the immigration debate will end for good Karl Rove’s dream of building a permanent GOP majority, along with Bush’s failed promise to bring the country together.

While I don't necessarily disagree with Clift's conclusions, I think that George Bush has a far different notion of how one brings the country together. I agree with Clift's contention that Rove had a dream of building a permanent GOP majority. I believe George Bush held that same dream. The problem is that he never sought to bring the country together by persuasion. Not unlike the justifications for the invasion of Iraq, this president seems blinded by the belief that the positions he promotes hold more "Truth" than the views of those who oppose him. Therefore, in so far as he seeks to unite the country, it is solely based upon the belief that those who hold dissimilar views must eventually realize that they were wrong. History may well conclude that this misguided approach brought George Bush far closer to being the epitome of a divider.