Poll: 51% Now Say Iraq Not Tied To War On Terror genre: Just Jihad & Polispeak & Six Degrees of Speculation
The most recent New York Times/CBS News poll seems to indicate that a majority of the voting public is no longer connecting the Iraq war with the war on terror. Despite the administrations efforts to conflate the two issues, it now appears that voters are beginning to draw some important distinctions when it comes to the Iraq effort. It seems that frustration with a lack of progress in Iraq coupled with perceptions that there is an increasing radicalization taking place within the Middle East has led voters to question whether Iraq has been a helpful endeavor or merely a costly diversion form the larger problem. Read the full article here.
WASHINGTON, Aug. 22 — Americans increasingly see the war in Iraq as distinct from the fight against terrorism, and nearly half believe President Bush has focused too much on Iraq to the exclusion of other threats, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.
The poll found that 51 percent of those surveyed saw no link between the war in Iraq and the broader antiterror effort, a jump of 10 percentage points since June. That increase comes despite the regular insistence of Mr. Bush and Congressional Republicans that the two are intertwined and should be seen as complementary elements of a strategy to prevent domestic terrorism.
Should the trend hold, the rising skepticism could present a political obstacle for Mr. Bush and his allies on Capitol Hill, who are making their record on terrorism a central element of the midterm election campaign. The Republicans hope that by expressing a desire for forceful action against terrorists, they can offset unease with the Iraq war and blunt the political appeal of Democratic calls to establish a timeline to withdraw American troops.
This poll seems to contradict some of the other recent polling so it may be necessary to see the results of future polling in order to determine what may actually be happening with voter sentiment. Given this most recent poll, it is possible that the USA Today/Gallup poll may have been an outlier. Of the three polls, it was the only one that indicates that Republicans have significantly closed the gap on voter sentiment with regards to the upcoming midterm elections. In the USA Today/Gallup poll voters favored Democrats over Republicans by only two percentage points. The Opinion Research poll has the Democrats ahead by 52% to 43% and the New York Times/CBS News poll has the Democrats receiving 47% to 32% for Republicans in November.
Mr. Bush recorded a gain of four percentage points in how the public views his handling of terrorism, rising to 55 percent approval from 51 percent a week earlier. This was his highest approval rating on the issue since last summer and followed the arrests in Britain in a suspected terror plot to blow up airliners.
Mr. Bush’s overall standing was nevertheless unchanged from the previous week, with 57 percent disapproving and 36 percent approving, far below the level Republicans in Congress would like to see as they prepare for elections in November.
From my perspective, the above two paragraphs best capture the conflict that voters are currently grappling with in regards to this President and perhaps the choice of which Party to support in November. The data continues to show that voters give the President his highest marks on the war on terror despite their displeasure with the handling of the war in Iraq. The conclusions voters make with regards to Iraq prior to voting this fall may well determine which Party controls the House and the Senate.
If voters decide that concerns about the war on terror trump concerns about the poor handling of the Iraq conflict, Republicans may well be able to hold power. On the other hand, if voters determine that there must be a change in the Iraq strategy, they may well be willing to give Democrats control despite misgivings about their resolve with regards to the war on terror.
Clearly the Party that succeeds in framing the debate between now and November is the likely winner. What remains to be seen is whether the voting public will elect Democrats on the basis of simply opposing the current strategies or if they will require some tangible alternatives in order to support Democratic candidates. While conventional thinking would suggest that it is sufficient to point out the failures of the Party in power in times of overwhelming voter dissatisfaction, I tend to think that voters will require some specific policy strategies.
I believe that to be true because I see the issue of terror much differently than the economy or corruption or any number of other issues that have lead voters to fire the Party in power. Terror is seen much more cautiously and voters are less apt to approach voting with a "throw the bums out" mentality. I also believe that the terror issue may explain the volatility and discordant results being witnessed in the polling data. Given the issues at play, one can take little comfort in the fact that November is less than three months away...an awful lot can happen between now and then.
Daniel DiRito | August 23, 2006 | 8:32 AM
Comments
1 On August 23, 2006 at 6:42 PM, Lemming Herder wrote —
Polls are such fickle things. I remember watching the Zogby polling on election day, including their exit polling showing Kerry had won.
Democrats had better remember that the Republicans are excellent at framing issues to make the voters vote to support Republican issues (i.e. gay marriage).
Posted by the Lemming Herder from Don’t Be A Lemming!
Trackback Pings
© Copyright 2024
Post a comment