Thought Theater

New Pew Research Poll: Digesting The Data genre: Just Jihad & Polispeak & Six Degrees of Speculation

In one of the more comprehensive surveys in recent weeks, The Pew Research Center has provide the latest glimpse of voter sentiment and it continues to provide results that are encouraging to Democrats. Nonetheless, there are some items to be watched closely as the GOP continues its efforts to define the focus of voters prior to November. Read the full Pew Research report here.

As the congressional midterm campaign begins in earnest, the mood of the electorate is sharply drawn. Voters are disappointed with Congress and disapproving of President Bush. Anti-incumbent sentiment, while a bit lower than a few months ago, is far more extensive than in the previous two midterms and remains close to 1994 levels. Moreover, there are indications that voters are viewing the election through the prism of national issues and concerns. Many more voters see their vote as being against the president than at a comparable point in 1994, and a solid majority says party control of Congress will be a factor in their voting decision.

As in six previous surveys over the past 12 months, voters by a wide margin say they favor the Democratic congressional candidate in their district (50%-39%). When the sample is narrowed to likely voters, approximately half of registered voters, the Democratic lead is undiminished. That Democrats poll as well among likely voters as among all voters may reflect the fact that Democrats, in contrast to recent campaigns, are more enthusiastic about voting than are Republicans.

The public favors the Republican Party on only one of 17 issues tested – terrorism. By 41%-32%, more Americans say the Republicans can better deal with the terrorist threat at home. On each of the other issues, Democrats hold either a substantial or slight lead.

Even on such traditional GOP strengths as reducing crime and improving morality, at least as many Americans trust the Democratic Party to do a better job as trust the Republican Party.

All of this date would indicate that the Democrats are poised to make gains in November. Further, the data compares favorably with prior elections in which the electorate enacted a significant shift to the Party currently not in power. Despite the positive trending, the report doesn't gauge the full impact of the recent GOP efforts to refocus the midterm election on the war on terror nor were there as many potential variables during the last sea change election in 1994.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Sept. 6-10 among 1,507 adults (1,191 registered voters) finds that recent developments related to terrorism – including Bush's series of speeches on the subject – have raised the profile of the issue with the public. Currently, 15% cite terrorism as the most important problem facing the country, the highest percentage in three years. However, many more people (26%) volunteer that the war in Iraq is the most pressing problem confronting the nation. And there is no evidence that the renewed focus on terrorism has improved Bush's standing; his job approval rating stands at 37%, unchanged from August.

However, the Republicans continue to retain an advantage in one important dimension. By a wide margin (43%-30%), the GOP is perceived as having stronger political leaders than the Democratic Party. Notably, independents by roughly two-to-one (42%-22%) feel that the Republican Party has stronger political leaders.

This data does indicate that the GOP is making headway in bringing terrorism to the forefront. Nonetheless, it doesn't appear to as yet have translated into greater support for the President or Republican candidates. Of concern to Democrats is the fact that independent voters view Democrats as weak on leadership...a fact that could harm Democrats if the GOP can succeed in making fear a key determinant for voters such that they are unable or unwilling to trust Democrats in a position of leadership. There is no doubt that Democrats will need independent voters if they are to assume control of the House or the Senate. Countering this information on independent voters is the fact that 37% of moderate and liberal Republicans do not view Democratic control as a hindrance to the war on terror.

Currently, about as many people say the U.S. is losing the war on terrorism as say it is winning (41% vs. 39%). That represents a significant shift from the presidential campaign of two years ago, when pluralities consistently said the U.S. was winning in the struggle against terrorism.

Public opinion on the Iraq war continues to be stable. The public is evenly divided over whether the U.S. should bring its troops home as soon as possible or maintain troops in Iraq until the country is stabilized (47%-47%). However, there has been a significant increase in the percentage viewing the violence in Iraq as a civil war, rather than an anti-U.S. insurgency.

Democrats need to be mindful that the GOP will attempt to portray their position as "cut and run" and will tie that argument to their contention that the Democrats are also weak on terror. Democrats would be well served to make clear that they favor new strategies in Iraq and that their proposals are not simply a plan for immediate withdrawal from the troubled nation. If they can convince voters that the Republican plan is a failure, it will help offset the perception that Democrats are weaker on defense and security measures. By pointing out the unwillingness of the Bush administration to adopt new strategies, they keep voter focus on the lack of progress which has largely driven voter dissatisfaction with the effort...allowing voters to consider or prefer the strategies offered by the Democrats.

Reflecting public sentiment over the war, voters are divided over whether differing approaches to Iraq would make them more likely to support or oppose a congressional candidate. Of three possible options tested, support for setting a timetable for the removal of U.S. forces has the greatest potential upside; 31% of voters say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supported this position, while 23% say they would be more likely to vote against such a candidate.

The poll finds that more people think criticism of the handling of the war in Iraq helps America's enemies (36%) than believe it helps protect America (15%); but a 42% plurality sees criticism as neither helping the country's enemies nor protecting the U.S.

More than half of Republicans (52%) believe that criticism of the handling of the war helps America's enemies, while just 24% of Democrats agree. Independents fall midway between Democrats and Republicans (37%).

These numbers point out the fine line that Democrats need to walk between making the election only about opposition to the handling of the war in Iraq as opposed to suggesting new strategies that would better serve America's interests in addition to criticizing the current effort. Prior polling has shown that despite opposition to the war, voters are still unwilling to concede defeat even if they may believe we are currently being defeated. That means the Democratic agenda must be careful to avoid being seen as simply a concession of defeat that precludes us from achieving some or all of our goals in Iraq and the region.