Thought Theater

New Poll Exposes Both Parties' Vulnerabilities genre: Polispeak & Six Degrees of Speculation

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll provides some growing insight into how the strategies of the Republicans and the Democrats may be impacting voters. Nonetheless, the signals remain mixed and it would be premature to conclude that either Party has offered voters a message that fully resonates. Perhaps that gives the Democrats an advantage in that the anti-incumbent mentality that is characterized as a "throw the bums out" sentiment may be the strongest motivation this November.

According to the survey, 42 percent of registered voters approve of Bush's job — up from the 40 percent who said that in July's NBC/Journal poll. In addition, only 38 percent approve of his handling of Iraq, but that's an increase of three percentage points since that last poll.

While neither number is significant, one must look at the longer term trending. Despite the fact that many observers offer a discounted impression of the Bush up tick, if one looks at the trending, he has made progress over the last few polling cycles. While each recent increase has been within the margin of error, the collective increase is statistically significant. It appears that his approvals are hovering near 40% as opposed to a period indicating his approval averages were near the mid thirties. That increase is notable but the current 42% is still a dangerously low number for the GOP as we approach the midterm elections.

Also in the poll, Democrats hold a nine-point advantage over Republicans (48 percent to 39 percent) in voters' preference of which party they want to control Congress. That finding is essentially unchanged from July, when Democrats held a 10-point edge over Republicans (48 percent to 38 percent).

The violence in Iraq, however, continues to be a problem for the Bush administration and the Republican-led Congress. In the poll, 57 percent of registered voters say they feel less confident that the war there will come to a successful conclusion. That's essentially unchanged from July, when 58 percent said this.

The problem with the latter number is that it seeks to measure sentiment that is volatile and easily influenced by recent events. The current numbers bode well for Democratic efforts to gain control of the House or the Senate but events on the ground could quickly alter voter impressions...something that could cause a sudden evaporation of the Democratic advantage...leaving the Bush message that Iraq is integral to the war on terror as the primary focus of the voting public. The President and his operatives are doing all they can to facilitate this shift of focus. The Democratic focus on opposition to the Iraq war leaves them vulnerable to the GOP's terror message especially in the absence of a coherent Democratic plan for solving both the Iraq war and the larger war on terror.

If Democrats have a weakness heading into the midterms, it's that many voters don't believe they have plans to deal with the problems facing the country. Asked what concerns them more — that they believe Democrats have no plans or that Republicans have offered no changes in dealing with the nation's problems — 42 percent of registered voters said that Democrats having no plans was the bigger concern, while 37 percent said the GOP offering no changes was. "The national Democrat Party has not made itself an option yet," McInturff notes.

But that might not be a problem if the elections turn into a referendum on Bush. According to the poll, 37 percent say their vote will be a signal of opposition to the president, compared with just 25 percent who say it will be a signal of support. Thirty-six percent say it won't have anything to do with Bush.

I view the fact that voters don't perceive the Democrats as having a plan for the issues that the country confronts as the single biggest Republican advantage. When that concern is coupled with the GOP message of fear...a message I expect to be greatly expanded and accelerated...It isn't difficult to imagine that voters may hesitate in the ballot box and decide that the risk of an unknown plan may be worse than the Bush plan that is currently struggling but obviously intentioned upon keeping America safe. Despite the fact that voters may not believe the Bush plan is achieving its objective, the GOP is betting that the irrational nature of fear will supersede voter anger with the poorly managed war effort in Iraq. A strong and cogent Democratic message would go a long way towards countering this dangerous midterm potentiality.