Political Strategy: Time To Play Offense genre: Just Jihad & Polispeak & Six Degrees of Speculation
The following posting is the ninth entry in a continuing Thought Theater dialogue on political strategy. The first posting, Political Strategy: The Opening Dialogue, can be found here, the second posting, Political Strategy: Beyond Extremist Labels can be found here, the third posting, Political Strategy: The Numbers Speak can be found here, the fourth posting, Political Strategy: Splitting The Baby can be found here, the fifth posting, Political Strategy: Examining Potential Outcomes can be found here, the sixth posting, Political Strategy: Voter Mobilization can be found here, the seventh posting, Political Strategy: Bad Math & Inconsistency can be found here, and the eighth posting, Political Strategy: The Horse Race Begins can be found here.
In addition, other related postings can be found here, here, here, and here.
In football, they call it peaking too soon. In politics, they call it a mismanaged campaign strategy. Call it what you will, but if the current trending beginning to surface in recent polling continues to expand and multiply, the Democrats may be scrambling to explain why they failed to capture control of the House or the Senate come November 8th. Adding to my concern is the fact that the Democrats continue to revise and adjust their national message even though the election is less than two months away. At the same time, the GOP is in full campaign mode with a clear and concise message that can be voiced in short, simple sound bites. I may be a cynic, but I'm having a deja vu moment.
Two articles caught my attention today. First, a Washington Post article offers a view into ongoing Democratic efforts to refine and deliver their comprehensive, yet cumbersome message. I was struck by the article primarily because it detailed yet another new Democratic slogan with revised priorities...one that I hadn't yet heard...and if I haven't heard it, there isn't a chance that a sufficient number of voters has or will hear it before the November election.
The second article is the latest Zogby poll. While the data isn't enough to conclude that the Democrats are on the precipice of squandering what appeared to be an insurmountable advantage, it does seem to support other recent polling indicating that the midterm election is tightening and that the Republican strategy is achieving a favorable movement of some key polling numbers.
From The Washington Post:
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, the woman who will become speaker of the House if Democrats get lucky in November, began her weekly news conference yesterday holding up a red-white-and-blue brochure.
"I hope you all received 'A New Direction for America,' " she said, standing at a lectern that bore the same slogan. She called the manifesto "a compilation of many of the initiatives taken by our House Democratic Caucus that encompasses our new direction for all Americans."
Among the party's campaign slogans this year: "Culture of Corruption," "Culture of Cronyism," "Do-Nothing Congress," "Rubber-Stamp Congress," "Together, We Can Do Better," "Together, America Can Do Better" and, most recently, "Six for '06."
For those keeping score at home, Democrats arrived at "New Direction" yesterday by downgrading one of the "Six for '06" issues (health care) and upgrading three others (honesty, civility and fiscal discipline), for a total of eight items on the contents page.
I just don't get it. Democrats will never gain traction on an issue if they continue to determine important issues from the latest focus group or the most recent polling data. In contrast to their Republican counterparts, Democrats seem to chase issues rather than attempt to define them. Perhaps the GOP decision to focus on primarily one singular issue...the war on terror...will prove to be a miscalculation and a return to the well one time too often, but if the new polling is accurate and indicative of voter trending, its working as it did in 2002 and 2004.
Further, Republicans have mastered the art of pivoting from their primary topic enough to draw its connection to other relevant issues...culminating in a comprehensive narrative that may well be a fabrication but it has all the elements of an easily understood and seemingly logical rationale. From their focus on the war on terror they explain the Iraq war, they discount the deficit, and they tout economic progress in spite of the impact of 9/11 and two costly wars.
The GOP understands simplicity and they recognize that voters ultimately spend very little time studying the issues and the positions adopted by the two major parties. They find a message that is short and simple, they repeat it incessantly, and they stay with it till the end. Doing so gives voters the impression that they are both decisive and principled...traits that resonate with busy people looking for strong leadership on issues they haven't the time to address.
From The Washington Post:
By contrast, Republicans have settled on a single, unofficial slogan, which essentially says: Vote Democrat and Die. And in politics, scary and scurrilous usually trumps elaborate and earnest -- something Pelosi has experienced firsthand in recent days.
Majority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) wondered whether Democrats are "more interested in protecting terrorists than in protecting the American people." Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) stood next to a poster of Pelosi and her words about bin Laden and demanded: "Where do your loyalties lie?" House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) said Democrats "are confused about who the enemy actually is."
Pelosi, sitting on the sofa in her Capitol office yesterday, took the treason talk in stride. "I've been a traitor for five years," she quipped, pointing out that Republicans said much the same thing when she proposed a 9/11 commission. By now, she added, Democrats have neutralized the issue.
That's mostly true. Polls show a shrunken GOP advantage on terrorism. But the Republican attacks have shifted the debate to the one issue that benefits them -- as Pelosi witnessed in her news conference yesterday morning.
I hate to say it, but Democrats have a tendency to jump at Republican bait. The abrasive remarks by Boehner are not accidental nor are they miscalculations. Time and again a GOP operative at arms length from the President drops the stink bombs knowing full well the President will soften the message when confronted about the remarks...but the intended purpose has been achieved...they have raised doubts and cast inferences that have been heard by voters. Each time a Democrat expresses outrage and calls for an apology, they reinforce the doubts as voters only see Democrats as defensive and reactionary...positions that do not invoke impressions of strength or leadership.
I call it a philosophy my uncle once described to me as the "2 × 4 strategy"...which essentially proposes that each time you meet an associate with which you are negotiating you first smack them with a 2 × 4...and then quickly pat them on the back and tell them you want to sit down and have a discussion with them to see if we can't resolve our nagging issue. As I watch the GOP, it seems to me that they execute this strategy with unrivaled acumen.
From The Washington Post:
At about the time Pelosi was unveiling the "New Direction" brochures, Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.) was out on the Senate floor, accusing Democrats of aiding the terrorists. "Al-Qaeda," he said, sees "the lack of resolve in some of our leaders, and they seek to exploit it."
The charge enraged Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.), who had come to the floor to talk about education.
"America is not tired of fighting terrorism," she retorted. "America is tired of the wrongheaded and boneheaded leadership of the Republican Party that has sent $6.5 billion a month to Iraq when the front line was Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia, that led this country to attack Saddam Hussein when we were attacked by Osama bin Laden."
She continued: "And Americans are most certainly tired of leadership that, despite documented mistake after mistake after mistake . . . never admit that they ever do anything wrong."
It was angry and raw. But it was a new direction.
In the above excerpt, Dana Milbank, the articles author has masterfully captured essence. While Nancy Pelosi is trying to keep a group of reporters focused on a laundry list of issues, another Republican is laying the groundwork for the next media cycle...one that the GOP expects to follow a predictable script and that will keep the Republican issue in the forefront while relegating the Pelosi announcement to a trailer on the screen.
Milbank accurately notes that Senator Landrieu, in a moment of spontaneous lucidity, has done what so many Democrats have failed to do...go on the offensive and express your beliefs with candor and conviction. Granted, Landrieu's outburst was in reaction to the remarks of her Republican counterpart...but they demonstrate the fact that Democrats have within their grasp a salient message...one that will catch the attention of busy voters...but unless they take that message out on the campaign trail and hammer it home with passion and persistence, they will find themselves reaching the finish line in the wake of their nimble opponents.
The following data is from the newly released Zogby poll and it offers some numerical substantiation of the above strategic discussion. One poll is certainly not enough to draw conclusions but at this juncture polls can hopefully give valuable insight to those in need...and at this point it is my opinion that the Democrats are directionally challenged such that they would be well served to recalibrate their strategic compass.
From Zogby International:
The poll contains good news for congressional Republicans battling a strong Democratic push to retake the House and Senate. While Republican congressional candidates trailed their Democratic counterparts in the “generic ballot" question by a 39% to 31% margin a month ago, today they have whittled the Democrats’ lead to just three points, 37% to 34%.
Another positive development for Congressional Republicans is that one in four of their supporters—23%—consider terrorism the top issue as they go to the polls, easily the top issue for those backing the GOP. This is the same percentage as say they will vote for Democrats based on the War in Iraq and general U.S. foreign policy.
I'm inclined to see the three point Democratic lead as an outlier number given that there have been at least two other recent polls that show the Republicans trailing by at least 10 percent. Nonetheless, the trend indicates that the Democratic advantage is diminishing and coupling that with the heightened voter awareness being placed on the terror issue are not good Democratic indicators as we approach November.
From Zogby International:
Among those voters who say national issues are motivating them at the ballot box, the war in Iraq is clearly the most important single issue, with 22% indicating they will cast their ballot based on the conflict. Terrorism, meanwhile, follows at 14%.
These numbers still favor the Democrats but if the Republicans continue to drive the dialogue for the next two months, they may well succeed in making fear and terrorism the primary issue. If they achieve that goal, it will likely be because Democrats failed to take the lead in framing the debate with the formidable weapons they have in their grasp. I would argue that Democrats need to focus on delivering a strong and succinct message and forget about conducting the next focus group analysis in order to refine their message. They need to run the offense they have and quit looking for one more gadget play.
Daniel DiRito | September 15, 2006 | 1:16 PM
Comments
1 On September 16, 2006 at 8:36 AM, The Lemming Herder wrote —
Finally, someone agrees with me!
The Republicans scare the crap out of me this electionbecause they should be even further behind than they are.
What you addressed is a perfect example of the problems with the Democratic party. They are absolutely, unequivocally unable to frame an issue in a way that captures the hearts and minds of the voters.
We are therefore always relegated to reacting to what the Republicans do and their issues.
Wake up guys! You're blowing it!
http://dontbealemming.com/2006/09/16/are-we-seeing-boogeymen-when-it-is-just-shadows.aspx
Posted by the Lemming Herder at Don’t Be A Lemming!
2 On September 18, 2006 at 6:20 PM, Jimi wrote —
Daniel,
I have totaly enjoyed these series of thoughtful and insightful articles. If you're not careful you may well end up consulting!
Reading this particular piece reminded me of a song from the halcyon nineties by Rage Against the Machine.
Can you guess which one?
Yes I know my enemies
They're the teachers who taught me to fight me
Compromise, conformity, assimilation, submission
Ignorance, hypocrisy, brutality, the elite
All of which are American dreams
In Chomsky's words, It's all about shaping the message.
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