Vulnerable GOP Seats Double genre: Polispeak & Six Degrees of Speculation
At the moment, Democrats seem to be well positioned for the November midterm election. It now appears that there are ample House seats at play to provide the Democrats with the 15 seats needed to take control of the House. Regarding the Senate, the task for the Democrats is significantly more difficult. The Washington Post has a lengthy article discussing the possibilities.
Over the summer, the political battlefield has expanded well beyond the roughly 20 GOP House seats originally thought to be vulnerable. Now some Republicans concede there may be almost twice as many districts from which Democrats could wrest the 15 additional seats they need to take control.
One prominent consultant -- who like many of the people interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity to offer candid appraisals -- put the odds of a Democratic takeover at 75 percent. Another strategist who has worked as part of Bush's campaign team said he believes there is a 9-in-10 chance that Republicans will lose their 12-year-old House majority.
But Mehlman said Republicans have financial and organizational assets to deploy, and he predicted that, over the next 30 days, GOP candidates will attempt to convert the elections from a referendum on the president and congressional Republicans to a choice between competing philosophies on fighting terrorism and growing the economy.
Should there be any doubt that the GOP hopes to focus voters on the threat of terrorism, one would have had to have crawled under a rock for the last week. Clearly the talking points have been defined and the President is set to deliver a string of speeches that will ask voters to ponder what would happen with regards to terrorism should the U.S. exit Iraq without finishing the job. Thought Theater has previously discussed the recent GOP strategy shift here, here, and here.
Democrats still face an uphill battle in the Senate, where Republicans hold 55 of 100 seats. Needing a net gain of six seats for a majority, Democrats see chances in Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Montana and Missouri. But they would also have to win a race or two in such Republican strongholds as Tennessee, Arizona and Virginia, while holding off GOP challenges in Minnesota, Maryland, New Jersey and Washington.
The economy figures prominently in Democratic hopes -- and GOP fears -- even as growth and employment remain relatively strong. Rising interest rates and high energy prices have helped depress consumer confidence.
If the housing market continues to struggle with slow home sales and declining prices, consumer confidence is likely to suffer. Statistics indicate that the economic growth seen in the last few years has offered little benefit to the average American and polling supports the data. Thought Theater has previously discussed the housing market ramifications here.
Democrats have learned the hard way to fear the ability of the White House and the Republican National Committee to dominate the final days of any campaign, when the money and organization the GOP can muster come fully to bear.
Some GOP strategists believe that the terrorism issue has lost some of its potency, in part because of the miscalculations and setbacks suffered by the administration in the Iraq war. One pollster who has surveyed the issue said, "That dog won't hunt again." But Donna Brazile, who managed Al Gore's campaign in 2000, is not so sure: "September 11 shifted something inside the American people, and there are some lingering doubts [about Democrats' stance on terrorism] Republicans know how to exploit."
If the Democrats cannot close the deal with voters during the 2006 midterm election, one would be hard pressed to imagine when they will have a better opportunity. The Party badly needs to change perceptions that it lacks cohesion and the ability to define a plan that Americans can feel comfortable supporting. It appears that the Democrats are betting that voter dissatisfaction with the handling of the war in Iraq, high gas prices, and the economy will be sufficient to win in November. Unfortunately, the media has grown all too accustomed to repeating the GOP mantra that Democrats haven't offered any tangible alternatives. That coupled with the Republican terrorism barrage may make for a November nail biter.
Daniel DiRito | September 2, 2006 | 10:15 PM
Comments
1 On September 4, 2006 at 7:50 AM, The Lemming Herder wrote —
As I skip around the blogosphere I see a lot of bloggers rejoicing like the elections are over and we've won.
It's waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too early for that.
As you said in your previous posts, these guys are masters at what they do.
And what they do is kick Democrats' asses by framing the issues in way that is beneficial to them.
Posted by the Lemming Herder at Don’t Be A Lemming!
2 On May 29, 2011 at 11:51 AM, Lady wrote —
I find that readers respond very well to Vulnerable GOP Seats Double posts that present your personal weaknesses, failings and the gaps in your individual information relatively than those posts the place you come across as figuring out every thing there is to know on a topic. People are attracted to humility and are extra possible to answer it than a post written in a tone of somebody who would possibly harshly reply to their comments.
Trackback Pings
© Copyright 2024
Post a comment