Thought Theater

Does Pakistan Instruct Us In The War On Terror? genre: Just Jihad & Polispeak & Six Degrees of Speculation

The United States, in it's efforts to combat terrorism under the Bush administration, has chosen military intervention as its preferred approach...an approach which successfully toppled anti-American regimes in Iraq and Afghanistan. In my opinion, the larger objective remains elusive...that being changing the hearts and minds of the inhabitants of those nations which have the potential to foster further terrorist activities.

Prior to 9/11, Afghanistan was under the control of the Taliban and Osama bin Laden was a welcome inhabitant who freely organized and ran terrorist camps which espoused the rejection of the West and in particular, the United States. Today, many believe that bin Laden has set up shop in Pakistan despite the fact that the country is under the control of U.S. ally, Pervez Musharraf. Notwithstanding, his pro-western stance has made him an unpopular figure...so much so that recent polling shows him trailing Osama bin Laden by a significant margin.

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf -- a key U.S. ally -- is less popular in his own country than al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, according to a poll of Pakistanis conducted last month by an anti-terrorism organization.

Additionally, nearly three-fourths of poll respondents said they oppose U.S. military action against al Qaeda and the Taliban inside Pakistan, according to results from the poll conducted by the independent polling organization Terror Free Tomorrow.

"We have conducted 23 polls all over the Muslim world, and this is the most disturbing one we have conducted," said Ken Ballen, the group's head. "Pakistan is the one Muslim nation that has nuclear weapons, and the people who want to use them against us -- like the Taliban and al Qaeda -- are more popular there than our allies like Musharraf."

According to poll results, bin Laden has a 46 percent approval rating. Musharraf's support is 38 percent. U.S. President George W. Bush's approval: 9 percent.

Asked their opinion on the real purpose of the U.S.-led war on terror, 66 percent of poll respondents said they believe the United States is acting against Islam or has anti-Muslim motivation. Others refused to answer the question or said they did not know.

"We failed in winning hearts and minds in Pakistan," Ballen told CNN. "In fact, only 4 percent said we had a good motivation in the war on terrorism."

After American relief efforts following the October 2005 earthquake in Pakistan's Kashmir region, 46 percent of Pakistanis had a positive opinion of the United States, according to the poll. But as of last month, only 19 percent reported a favorable opinion.

Meanwhile, al Qaeda has a 43 percent approval rate; the Taliban has a 38 percent approval rate; and local radical extremist groups had an approval rating between 37 percent to 49 percent.

There were a few bright spots in the poll results, however. Opposition leader Benazir Bhutto -- a relatively moderate and progressive figure, as well as a woman -- had a 63 percent approval rating.

Seventy-five percent of poll respondents said suicide bombings are rarely or never justified.

The comfort the United States garners from Musharraf's hold on power in Pakistan is understandable. However, his ability to keep the lid on extremists and maintain his position are both in question...a reality which leads one to wonder if our current strategy to combat terrorism can succeed. The fact that Pakistan has nuclear weapons only exacerbates our need to get it right. How that is accomplished should be a policy priority.

What we should do in Pakistan cannot be determined absent a review of the lessons learned in Afghanistan and Iraq. In fact, our experience in those nations reveals a frightening pattern which cannot be ignored. With Afghanistan and Iraq, the forces for extremism continue to undermine our efforts to reconstitute regimes friendly to the United States.

At the same time, the goal of democratizing these nations may well enable the election of governments hostile to the United States. Were that to happen, one would have to question the strategy and the means to achieving our objective...that being an end to anti-American extremism which is intent upon executing terrorist strikes in the United States.

No where is this dilemma more evident than in Pakistan...and given its nuclear capacity...no where is the outcome more critical. In addition to gleaning lessons from Afghanistan and Iraq, history tells us of the risks of supporting unpopular regimes. Our experience in Iran during the 1970's offers a clear example...as well as an ominous warning. At the time, the United States backed the Shah of Iran and his pro-western objectives. Unfortunately, he was eventually unseated and replaced with a radical Islamic regime hostile towards the West and particularly the United States.

Musharraf's tenuous grip on Pakistan is frighteningly familiar...and it highlights the potential for a similar foreign policy gaffe. A number of foreign policy experts see a silver lining in the Musharraf situation...one which rests in the fact that those in the best position to challenge the existing regime politically are generally viewed as moderates. While I accept that assessment, I see time as our enemy.

Here's the equation. The longer Musharraf holds power against the will of the populace (meaning he continues to postpone democratic elections), the more likely extremist groups will gain strength. The optimism resulting from Musharraf's discussions to share power with former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto may seem valid on the surface but there is a possibility that it will push more Pakistani's into extremist camps as the compromise may well be viewed as unacceptable and an indication that Musharraf's opponents have also sold out to U.S. pressure and Western interests.

Further tempering this optimism is Musharraf's recent deportation of his foe, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif...a move made in opposition to the ruling of the Supreme Court to lift his exile...and a move which may only heighten the emerging skepticism and lead to a strengthening of radical extremists and their anti-American rhetoric.

The bottom line is that there is great risk attached to our ongoing support of Musharraf...despite his apparent cooperation in combating terrorism and the hopes that a shared power arrangement will put an end to his sliding popularity. If the Pakistani's determine that their government (either the one that currently exists or one which results from an apparent compromise) is nothing more than a fabrication intended to further American objectives, they may well be pushed into the open arms of extremists just as we witnessed in Iran.

While the United States may possess the military might to continue to confront hostile regimes, at some point the ground swell of animosity and radical ideology aimed at vilifying the West and the United States may well push us into a position similar to Israel...one that describes us as a mortal enemy to a majority of the nations of the Middle East and one that ends our still salvageable role as an honest broker for peace in the region. If this happens, I fear we can expect to see terrorism becoming a common and chronic occurrence in the homeland.

Lastly, the current strategic divide in the United States may well be a battle of straw man arguments. There is little reason to believe that our Iraq dilemma and the larger war on terror can or will be solved by the current interventionist strategy or the proposed alternative of full withdrawal. While a case can and should be made to discontinue the status quo, an alternative which will address the core issue of anti-American sentiment has yet to be identified. Those who seek to argue otherwise would be well advised to look at the realities found in Pakistan.

Whether it be hands on in Afghanistan and Iraq or hands off in Pakistan, the tide towards extremism has yet to be abated. Perhaps its time to set aside the rhetoric and refocus?